Tariffs are reshaping the supply chain, slowing cross-border investment, forcing changes in retail sourcing, and accelerating imports that may leave ports quieter later in the year.
Class 8 truck orders have increased month over month but remain well below long-term norms, reflecting the economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, operators, such as Landstar, are growing in specialized freight tied to infrastructure, even as core truckload volumes soften.
This edition of our newsletter explores the factors that are interplaying to create a freight market that is volatile yet full of targeted opportunities.
Tariffs Set to Cut US Port Import Volumes by 5.6%
Major U.S. container ports are on track to end 2025 down 5.6% from the previous year, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates’ Global Port Tracker. NRF’s Jonathan Gold said tariffs are lifting prices, curbing hiring and investment, and squeezing small businesses.
Ben Hackett criticized the “on-again, off-again” policy for distorting flows, as importers tend to front-load ahead of duties, thereby depressing volumes later. June imports totaled 1.96 million TEUs, a 8.4% decrease year over year.
July was projected to reach 2.3 million TEUs, a 12-month high, as goods were rushed in before tariffs took effect. Forecasts show steep declines from September through December, with November set to be the lowest month since April 2023.
First-half 2025 rose 3.6% year over year; however, a weaker second half is expected to pull full-year totals down to 24.1 million TEUs from 25.5 million in 2024.
Retailers Brace for Spring 2026 Amid Tariff Uncertainty
Global tariffs are reshaping spring 2026 planning. Industry leaders are warning of higher prices, fewer choices, and job losses. Steve Lamar of the Apparel & Footwear Association called it a “perfect storm” of high tariffs, shifting policies, and unclear rules.
In 2024, fashion accounted for under 5% of the import value but paid over 25% of U.S. tariffs. Retailers must choose to absorb costs, raise prices, or cut inventory. Small brands like Flora paused launches as layered tariffs reached 60%. Buffalo Jackson Trading Co. says supply chain work now takes half the CEO’s time.
Vietnam’s 20% tariff deal offers partial relief, but uncertainty with China (30%, possibly up to 145%) and India (25%) clouds plans. Some retailers regret pausing orders, opting for cautious buys to avoid overstocking. Tariff volatility is now a core input to supply chain planning.
Class 8 Truck Orders Lag Year-Ago Levels
North American Class 8 orders stayed below last year in July: ACT Research reported a 1.9% decline to 13,300 units; FTR showed a 7% drop to 12,700. Both cited a 41-42% rebound from June, but orders remain below the 10-year July average of 19,974.
Headwinds include high equipment prices, soft freight, and weak freight-producing sectors like housing and manufacturing. Tariff volatility (including potential Section 232 duties on trucks and components) and uncertainty around the EPA’s 2027 NOx rules are also pushing fleets to wait.
Year-to-date orders are down 30% versus 2024. Mack Trucks’ Jonathan Randall said fleets are taking a measured, cyclical approach as economic and regulatory headwinds shape their purchasing decisions.
DSV Puts US-Mexico Expansion on Hold
DSV, now the world’s No. 2 logistics provider after acquiring DB Schenker in April, is pausing new investments along the U.S.-Mexico border due to tariff-linked trade slowdowns. CEO Jens H. Lund said DSV has halted cross-border trucking expansion and related projects until the U.S. policy with Mexico is clearer.
Despite a 15% year-over-year rise in Q2 operating profit to $722 million, boosted by the Schenker deal, the company remains cautious. DSV had doubled its border warehousing and tripled the size of its Brownsville, Texas, site to handle surging trade.
Landstar Sees First Trucking Revenue Gain Since 2022
Landstar’s Q2 truck revenue per load rose 2.6% year over year — the first increase since Q3 2022, despite a soft market. CEO Frank Lonegro said revenue beat seasonal norms. Heavy-haul services rose 9%, driven by a 5% increase in revenue per load and a 4% rise in volume.
Flatbed revenue grew 5% to $401 million; dry van fell 4.5% to $591 million. Overall revenue decreased by 1% as truckload volume declined by 1.5%. Lonegro said that margin compression and pricing gains suggest the market is edging toward balance, although capacity remains ample.
VP James Applegate expects the trend to intensify as new federal programs are implemented. Tariff uncertainty and a soft industrial economy remain headwinds.
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